کاربرد روش دلفی در تحقیقات علوم رفتاری و پزشکی: مروری بر مزایا، تنگناها و روش‌شناسی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار سازمان سنجش آموزش کشور

2 استادیار پژوهشکدۀ خانوادۀ دانشگاه شهید بهشتی

3 دانش‌آموخته کارشناسی ارشد آمار ریاضی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

چکیده

دلفی روشی برای پیش‌بینی، تصمیم‌گیری و تولید دانش تخصصی حاصل از اجماع متخصصان است. اگر چه این روش در ابتدا بر اساس حدس و قضاوت کارشناسان و به منظور بررسی علمی نظرات کارشناسان نظامی مطرح گردید، اما با رعایت اسلوب و قواعد علمی، به‌تدریج وارد حوزۀ روش‌شناسی علمی شد. در روش دلفی، متخصصان تلاش می‌کنند تا با استناد به نظرات شهودی و استفاده از روش‌های پرسشنامه‌ای، دادن بازخوردهای مکرر و حفظ اصل گمنامی، در یک حوزۀ خاص یا در حل یک مسأله مشخص به اجماع برسند. در نگاه اول، به نظر می‌رسد که این روش‌شناسی، تنها نوعی قضاوت ذهنی و فاعلی جمعی از متخصصان باشد؛ اما در مقایسه با اظهارات فردی از اعتبار بالاتری برخوردار است و نتایج عینی‌تر و کاربردی‌تری را فراهم می‌کند؛ به علاوه، این روش در پیش‌بینی موضوعات مربوط به آینده، رسیدن به اجماع، ایجاد ایده‌های خلاقانه و پیش‌بینی تصمیمات استراتژیک دراز مدت در حوزه‌های مختلفی، از جمله علوم پزشکی، اجتماعی، رفتاری، مدیریتی و اقتصادی، قابل استفاده است. در پژوهش حاضر، ریشه‌های تاریخی، فرایند تحول، مزایا، تنگناها و روش‌شناسی این روش علمی مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Application of Delphi Method in the Behavioral Sciences and Medical Research: A Review of Advantages, Limitations and Methodology

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ehsan Jamali 1
  • Mojtaba Habibi 2
  • Roghaye Baghi Yazdel 3
1
2
3
چکیده [English]

Delphi is a method of forecasting, decision-making, and providing specialized knowledge by consensus of experts. Although this method was introduced primarily based on the conjecture and judgment of experts to investigate the viewpoints of military experts scientifically, it entered gradually into the scientific methodology field as a result of compliance with the scientific rules. In Delphi method, experts try to reach a consensus in a particular domain or solving a special issue, relying on intuitive opinions and using questionnaires, giving continual feedback, and maintaining the anonymity principle. At first glance, this methodology seems to be just a subjective judgment of some experts. However, it is more valid in comparison with personal statements and provides more objective and practical results. Additionally, this method is usable in forecasting the future issues, reaching consensus, developing creative ideas and prediction of long-term strategic decisions in a variety of areas like medical, social, behavioral, management, and economic sciences. In current research, the historical roots, the process of evolution, advantages, limitations, and the methodology of this scientific method have been reviewed.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Delphi method
  • Futures studies
  • experts
  • Forecast

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